It’s official: One Nation’s Robert Roylance wins in Hammond
The Mannum ferry driver’s surprising victory brings an end to Liberal MP Adrian Pederick’s 20-year parliamentary career.
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It’s official: One Nation’s Robert Roylance has been elected as the new Member for Hammond.
The Electoral Commission of South Australia completed a full preference distribution on Wednesday – the slower, more precise way of confirming the result it had already projected.
In the end, Mr Roylance won by a margin of 4.9 per cent, making Hammond a marginal One Nation seat instead of a marginal Liberal one.
He will represent the Murraylands electorate in SA’s parliament until at least 2030, and will earn a salary of more than $218,000 per year in the meantime.
This is only the second time in 60 years that a non-Liberal candidate has won in the electorate of Hammond or its predecessors.
Labor’s Simone Bailey was the runner-up, while long-serving Liberal MP Adrian Pederick finished third.
The result brings an end to Mr Pederick’s 20-year career in politics after five terms, only one of which was spent in government.
Unlike MPs who served prior to 2005, Mr Pederick will not get a generous lifetime pension.
Ms Bailey will resume her role as mayor of the Mid Murray district, at least until local government elections later this year.
As shown in the map below, One Nation – in orange – won the two-party-preferred vote at every polling place in the electorate except Strathalbyn.
The final result will be officially declared in the coming days.
3pm Tuesday
Neither Liberal MP Adrian Pederick nor One Nation candidate Robert Roylance has yet declared victory or defeat in Hammond as vote-counting continues.
The Electoral Commission of South Australia has now started a complete preference count in the Murraylands electorate: eliminating candidates one by one and distributing their preferences to voters’ next choice.
With 12 candidates and at least 25,484 votes to count, that could take a while – possibly until late on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Mr Roylance is all but confirmed as the winner, with almost 55 per cent of votes in a two-candidate count against Labor’s Simone Bailey.
Only a very surprising flow of preferences toward Mr Pederick could catapult him past One Nation and into a sixth term in office.
Still, Mr Pederick told Murray Bridge News this afternoon he would not concede anything until the result became official.
He expressed frustration at how long it was taking to get to that point.
“It’s just appalling to string it out this long,” he said.
“The system … it’s just ridiculous.
“Just let us know.”
Mr Roylance also suggested he would hold off on declaring victory until everything was certain.
Meanwhile, One Nation’s Jason Virgo has been all but confirmed as the winner in neighbouring MacKillop, while Liberal candidate Rebekah Rosser – his closest rival – has conceded defeat.
- Read more: One Nation’s Jason Virgo wins in MacKillop
9.30pm Friday
One Nation ferry driver Robert Roylance is all but assured of being the next state Member for Hammond after his closest rival conceded defeat on Friday night.
Labor’s Simone Bailey congratulated Mr Roylance on his win in a Facebook post around 8.30pm.
“Whilst I may object to the way his party operates, I deeply respect the people of Hammond and their wishes in who they want to represent them,” she said.
“I wish Robert all the best in speaking up for the people of Hammond in the SA Parliament, which means working hard, listening, and making immense sacrifice in the service of the community.”
She paid tribute to outgoing Liberal MP Adrian Pederick, whose 20-year political career appears to be over.
She also thanked her friends, family and supporters, and the Labor team for the $100 million worth of commitments the new state government will implement in the Murraylands.
“Hammond is a remarkable community and I know the future of our region is a positive one,” she said.
“This is just the beginning.”
The map below shows the polling places where One Nation, in orange, or Labor, in red, won a majority; and those where a two-candidate vote has not yet been completed.
5.30pm Friday
One Nation is on the cusp of victory and long-serving Liberal MP Adrian Pederick’s career looks to be over in Hammond as state election vote-counting continues.
In a two-party count now being conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia, One Nation’s Robert Roylance is leading Labor’s Simone Bailey, 55 per cent to 45, after distribution of preferences.
More than 73% of primary votes have now been counted, and One Nation’s share has held up among postal, early and declaration votes – that is, those not cast at a polling place on election day.
The result will not become official until all votes are counted, a milestone which is likely to be reached sometime next week.
Mr Roylance, a ferry driver and craft distiller from Mannum, may soon face the task of hiring an office staff and settling in for a four-year term, reading legislation and advocating for locals as the Member for Hammond.
Mr Pederick has served in that role for the past 20 years, having defeated independent MP Peter Lewis at the 2006 election.
His achievements in office have included stopping a weir from being built on the River Murray at Wellington, securing a new emergency department at Murray Bridge’s hospital, and introducing Finn’s Law, which increased the rights of foster parents after the death of a child.
4pm Thursday
One Nation’s Robert Roylance is well positioned to achieve a shock election win in Hammond as vote-counting continues after Saturday’s state election.
With more than 8500 votes yet to be counted early on Thursday afternoon, Mr Roylance – a ferry driver from Mannum – remained the front-runner in a three-way race against Liberal MP Adrian Pederick and Labor challenger Simone Bailey.
One Nation and Labor had each earned just over 27 per cent of the votes cast on election day, at Murray Bridge’s early voting centre or by post.
The Liberals were in third place with 23% – a stunning result in the previously safe seat, and one which could spell the end of Mr Pederick’s 20-year political career.
Almost 1700 postal votes added to the tally on Thursday did not significantly change those percentages.
Independent election analyst William Bowe, of the Poll Bludger, has gone so far as to give One Nation a 93% chance of winning.
But major party scrutineers have told Murray Bridge News that they believe Mr Pederick may yet be able to overtake One Nation before the count is completed, as they expected preference flows to work in his favour.
Hundreds more postal votes are yet to be counted, Murray Bridge News understands, as are thousands more cast at Mount Barker or elsewhere outside the electorate, plus those cast in nursing homes and hospitals.
Electoral commission staff began that process on Wednesday, and also began looking at preference flows from fourth-placed independent Airlie Keen, in an effort to figure out who the final two candidates might be.
Once they establish that, staff will be able to sort all votes into two piles for the candidate placed highest on each ballot – the simplest way of projecting a winner.
Meanwhile, One Nation’s candidate is also ahead in Mackillop, the electorate which includes Tailem Bend.
Jason Virgo earned 36% of first-preference votes there, well ahead of the Liberals’ Rebekah Rosser (23%), Labor’s Mark Braes (16%) and independent MP Nick McBride (15%).
10am Monday
Vote-counting will continue all week in Hammond as electoral commission staff work out who will spend the next four years as the district’s state MP.
The numbers from all polling booths, including the early voting centre in Murray Bridge, would be checked on Monday and Tuesday, returning officer Ken Coventry told Murray Bridge News.
Postal and absentee ballots would be counted after that.
A final result may not arrive until Thursday, Friday or even later.
In the next few days, the electoral commission will determine which two candidates it should use for a two-candidate-preferred count.
That’s the simplest way of working out who has won if there are two clear contenders: sort all votes into two piles for the candidate ranked highest on each ballot.
On election night, the electoral commission did a quick Liberal-Labor 2CP count which projected a Liberal win; but the final contest is more likely to be between Labor and One Nation.
That would spell the end of Liberal MP Adrian Pederick’s 20-year political career.
Murray Bridge News estimates that One Nation’s Robert Roylance would likely win a Labor-One Nation contest with about 53% of the vote, but any of he, Mr Pederick or Labor’s Simone Bailey could still win.
The same problem occurred in the electorate of Mackillop, which includes Tailem Bend: the electoral commission projected a Liberal-independent contest, but a Liberal-One Nation contest is more likely.
Independent MP Nick McBride is almost certainly out of the running in that electorate, as he received only the fourth-highest number of votes, and One Nation’s Jason Virgo is the front-runner.
In Chaffey, the electorate which includes Karoonda and the Mallee, Liberal MP Tim Whetstone looks to have been re-elected in the face of a challenge from One Nation’s Jenny Troeth.
8.30pm Sunday
With almost 70 per cent of first-preference votes now counted in Hammond, Labor’s Simone Bailey has edged into top spot with 27.5% of the total.
One Nation’s Robert Roylance is in a close second place with 27%, Liberal MP Adrian Pederick has 22.1%, independent Airlie Keen 10.4% and the other eight 13.1% between them.
Only postal votes are yet to be counted.
Labor’s fortunes got a boost from Murray Bridge’s early voting centre, where Ms Bailey was the most popular candidate.
But Mr Roylance remains the one to beat, based on past voting patterns.
If One Nation stays ahead of the Liberals, they are likely to pick up a lot of Liberal preferences – enough to pass Labor.
Preference flows would have to run strongly against One Nation, and towards Labor or the Liberals, to keep the orange party from winning.
Down in Mackillop, One Nation’s Jason Virgo remains the candidate to beat.
Voters at Tailem Bend firmly embraced the orange wave.
Mr Virgo won nearly 40% of votes in the town, followed by Labor’s Mark Braes with 22.6%, the Liberals’ Rebekah Rosser on 20% and both independent MP Nick McBride and Deputy Mayor Jonathan Pietzsch trailing well behind.
11.59pm Saturday
One Nation’s Robert Roylance will have a chance to score a shock election win in Hammond after the Liberal vote nosedived in the formerly safe seat.
Sky News analyst Tom Connell has already called Hammond for One Nation, which would give the party its first ever lower-house seat in South Australia.
Mr Roylance was the leading candidate with 37 per cent of votes counted, but depending how preferences flow, any one of he, Labor’s Simone Bailey or Liberal MP Adrian Pederick could still win in the Murraylands electorate.
At Mannum, home town to both Mr Roylance and Ms Bailey, the One Nation candidate was the top vote-getter by a single vote.
Staff and volunteers from the Electoral Commission of South Australia may have to spend the next several days tallying all the votes and calculating preference flows.
“With election results still being tallied, I’d like to say thank you to all of my volunteers who helped during pre-poll and on today, and of course everyone who supported me during my campaign,” Mr Roylance said in a social media post late on Saturday night.
“From the very depths of my heart, thank you.
“We’re all looking forward to seeing the results.”
One Nation winning 27.6% of the vote has been remarkable – remember, this is a party which had never got more than about 7% in Hammond.
Equally remarkable has been the crash in the Liberal vote, which has never been lower in Murray Bridge and surrounds, going right back to the state party’s creation in 1932.
Also down at this election are independent Airlie Keen, currently running in fourth, and Family First.
Labor is only up about four points on its 2022 result.
In Mackillop, the electorate which includes Tailem Bend, One Nation candidate Jason Virgo is ahead with 35.1% of votes, followed by the Liberals’ Rebekah Rosser on 22.5% and independent MP Nick McBride on 16%.
Preferences will need to be counted there, too.
Mr Virgo is a security guard and Mount Gambier councillor who had been studying to become a mortgage broker, but may end up with a political career instead.
Meanwhile, Labor’s return to government means Premier Peter Malinauskas will have to make good on his promises to Hammond, including:
- An Adelaide Metro bus service
- A new maternity ward and renal unit at the Murray Bridge hospital
- A new technical college next door to Murray Bridge High School
- A permanent, salaried ambulance crew based in Murray Bridge
Murray Bridge News will provide further coverage as information becomes available.
10pm Saturday
Realistically, it’s too early to predict who might win in Hammond, and we probably won’t know for sure for several days.
But we can start to anticipate some possible scenarios.
If Labor finishes first:
- ...and One Nation finishes second, Liberal preferences may help One Nation win
- ...and the Liberals finish second, One Nation preferences may help the Liberals win
If One Nation finishes first:
- …and Labor finishes second, Liberal preferences may help One Nation win
- ...and the Liberals finish second, Labor preferences may help the Liberals win
You may note that out of four scenarios, that’s two wins for the Liberals, two for One Nation and none for Labor.
But that’s only if Liberal and Labor voters follow their parties’ how-to-vote suggestions, and if One Nation voters tend to support the Liberals over Labor; and only if pre-poll votes follow a similar pattern to those cast on the day – three pretty big ifs.
Meanwhile, One Nation candidate Robert Roylance says he hopes to “bring back common sense” and “real life politics that matter”.
He made the comments in a video by far-right activist Monica Smit, posted at the party’s post-election function in Adelaide.
- Callington: One Nation leads Airlie Keen
- Woodchester: One Nation leads Labor
9.15pm Saturday
Labor has edged ahead of One Nation in Hammond after the return of results from two of the electorate’s biggest polling booths, at Strathalbyn and Murray Bridge High School.
With a quarter of votes counted, it’s still very much a three-way contest between those two parties and the Liberals: Labor on 27 per cent, One Nation on 26.6% and the Liberals on 20.1%.
- Murray Bridge (south): Labor leads One Nation
- Murray Bridge (west): One Nation leads the Liberals
- Strathalbyn: Labor leads One Nation
Now might be a good time to re-read my opinion column from a few days ago, analysing the paths to victory for each of the four contending candidates in Hammond.
Down the road in Mackillop, One Nation’s candidate continues to lead independent MP Nick McBride and the Liberals’ Rebekah Rosser early in the counting.
8.30pm Saturday
Labor appears to have won a second term in government in South Australia, meaning Premier Peter Malinauskas will have to make good on his promises to Hammond, including:
- An Adelaide Metro bus service
- A new maternity ward and renal unit at the Murray Bridge hospital
- A new technical college next door to Murray Bridge High School
- A permanent, salaried ambulance crew based in Murray Bridge
Meanwhile, One Nation continues to lead a three-way contest in Hammond with about 10 per cent of votes counted so far.
Two more booths have returned results since our last update:
- Jervois: Liberals lead, with One Nation in second
- Murray Bridge (north): One Nation leads, with Labor in second
Any of One Nation’s Robert Roylance, Labor’s Simone Bailey or the Liberals’ Adrian Pederick could conceivably serve as the next Member for Hammond.
The order in which they finish, and the order in which their supporters preference the others, will be important.
For what it’s worth, the Liberals have recommended that their supporters preference One Nation, while Labor has recommended preferences go to the Liberals.
We may not find out who has won locally for several days.
7.45pm Saturday
One Nation’s Robert Roylance is leading all candidates early in the vote counting in Hammond, but the Liberals’ Adrian Pederick and Labor’s Simone Bailey are both hot on his heels early on.
With 1652 votes counted out of 29,166, One Nation was on 27.4 per cent, the Liberals on 25.5% and Labor on 24.4%.
Independent Airlie Keen was the best of the rest with 11.2%.
- Harrogate: One Nation leads the Liberals
- Jervois: Liberals lead One Nation
- Murray Bridge East: One Nation leads the Liberals
- Palmer: One Nation and Labor are even
- Ponde: One Nation leads Labor
- Wellington: Liberals lead One Nation
Labor Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis suggested Hammond might be won by whoever finished second.
“If the Liberal Party stay in second place, they’ll probably be elected on Labor preferences,” he said on the ABC’s election coverage.
“If Labor can get into second place, I think Adrian Pederick is in a lot of trouble.
“But we’ll wait to see the Murray Bridge numbers.”
One Nation led all parties at Murray Bridge East, Harrogate and Ponde before the distribution of preferences, and had the same number of votes as Labor at Palmer.
The Liberals led at Wellington and Woods Point.
7.15pm Saturday
A three-way contest already looks to be brewing in Hammond as the first results come in from today’s election.
The good people of Woods Point cast 157 votes today, and three candidates were neck and neck there: the Liberals with 44, Labor with 43 and One Nation with 41.
That’s … 0.5 per cent of votes counted so far.
With a similar number of votes counted in Mackillop, One Nation candidate Jason Virgo is leading independent MP Nick McBride.
Murray Bridge News will update the below map of Hammond as results continue to come in, with blue for the Liberals, red for Labor and orange for One Nation; a question mark indicates that preferences will need to be counted, while a tick indicates a candidate has more than 50% of votes.
Labor’s Simone Bailey thanked her supporters in a social media post this afternoon: “This campaign has been an incredible ride, and I've been amazed at the support from so many.”
Independent Airlie Keen also posted this morning about the “overwhelming support and positivity” she had experienced during the campaign.
“If politics is about achieving outcomes for our community, then we have already won, with over $100 million in commitments and counting,” she said.
6pm Saturday
Votes have been cast, polling places have closed – now we wait to see who will serve for the next four years as the state Member for Hammond, and in neighbouring electorates.
Liberal MP Adrian Pederick has spent the past 20 years as Member for Hammond, having defeated independent Peter Lewis in 2006.
Challenging him this time are Labor’s Simone Bailey, One Nation’s Robert Roylance, independent Airlie Keen and eight other candidates.
In Mackillop, the electorate which includes Tailem Bend, independent Nick McBride aims to keep his seat in the face of competition from Liberal candidate Rebekah Rosser and seven others.
You may also be interested in the result from Chaffey, the Riverland electorate which covers the Mallee and parts of the Mid Murray district and is represented by Liberal Tim Whetstone.
The Electoral Commission of South Australia will start counting votes from 6pm on Saturday.
If any candidate receives at least 50 per cent of votes, they will be declared the winner; if not, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated, their second preferences will be counted, and we’ll go again, and so on.
More than 40 per cent of Hammond’s 29,144 enrolled voters cast their votes early in Murray Bridge, or by post, and counting them will take a while.
A result may not become clear until late on Saturday night, or even early next week if a minor-party or independent candidate makes the top two.
Murray Bridge News will provide rolling updates on this page, including booth-by-booth results in the map above.
For what it’s worth, the Liberal Party earned the most votes in every booth except one in 2022.
Callington backed Ms Keen, the independent, a resident of the town.
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor won four booths – Murray Bridge north and south, Callington and Mannum – while the Liberals won the rest.
Take a look back at all our previous election coverage here.
- More information: result.ecsa.sa.gov.au.
Clarification: This story has been updated to more accurately reflect the process the electoral commission will use to determine a winner in Hammond.
