Safe seat no more: Four candidates’ paths to victory in Hammond

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Having covered 11 federal, state and local elections since my media career brought me to Murray Bridge, you would think I’d know better than to make predictions.

But all sorts of folks have asked me in recent weeks: who do I think will win in Hammond?

I’m no Antony Green, but I’ll have a crack.

You can never take voters for granted, but for years, the Liberal Party has been a safe bet in the traditionally conservative electorate which includes Murray Bridge, Mannum and Strathalbyn.

A non-Liberal candidate has won here only once since 1965.

But several factors make this election different to any other in recent memory:

• Liberal MP Adrian Pederick has been in for 20 years, and although he has weathered storms before, it feels like voters may be open to a change
• Labor is ascendant at a state level and has poured resources into Hammond like never before, selecting a high-profile candidate and making $100 million worth of promises
• Independent Airlie Keen hopes to build on her 2022 result, when she might have overtaken Mr Pederick on preferences if she hadn’t finished 306 votes behind Labor
• One Nation is on the rise nationally, and its supporters are certainly vocal on social media, but whether that will translate to votes remains to be seen
• A record 12 candidates are on the ballot paper

Considering all those factors, it feels likely that the Liberals will win fewer votes in Hammond than in 2022.

But could the shift really be big enough to turf out the party’s long-standing MP?

It will depend on where those votes go, and the order in which candidates are eliminated.

Let’s look at four different scenarios.

How Adrian Pederick can win

• The Liberals can win if: Their primary vote holds up
• The Liberals are in trouble if: One Nation causes an upset

About 40-60 per cent of Hammond voters have always supported the Liberals – that’s why it has been considered such a safe seat in the past.

Mr Pederick is a five-time winner who will bank on an entrenched support base, his track record and his constant visibility at public events earning him a sixth term.

Given predictions of a dire statewide result for the Liberals, he may even play a more prominent role in Ashton Hurn’s next opposition team.

Of course, he would prefer to end up sitting on the benches on the other side of the House of Assembly.

“We’re campaigning for a win,” he told Murray Bridge News back in December.

When votes are counted, as long as he makes it into the final two, Mr Pederick is the most likely of the four candidates listed here to benefit from preference flows.

How Simone Bailey can win

• Labor can win if: $100 million pays off
• Labor is in trouble if: Hammond stays conservative

Labor has not got even 30% of votes in the electorate of Hammond, or any its predecessors, since the 1960s.

If they can cross that threshold, they’ll have a chance.

They’ll also need to earn strong preference flows from supporters of independent Airlie Keen, two thirds of whom preferenced Labor in 2022.

The party has hit all the right notes with major promises on issues locals have long listed among their top priorities – things like public transport and hospital upgrades.

As Premier Peter Malinauskas said on Murray Bridge’s riverfront six weeks ago: “This election, we are turning up.”

Labor’s candidate, Ms Bailey, is a shrewd and determined operator with past political experience.

Tack on the fact that the party is expected to win government in a landslide, and you have to ask: if they can’t win Hammond in 2026, when will they ever?

How Airlie Keen can win

• Ms Keen can win if: Disaffected locals lodge their protest votes with her
• Ms Keen is in trouble if: She falls behind One Nation

The independent vote is one of two big X factors at this election.

Back in 2002, when ex-Liberal MP Peter Lewis was re-elected as an independent, he attracted more than 35% of votes.

If Ms Keen’s vote gets up into that territory, or even the 20s, she’ll have a shot.

Almost three quarters of One Nation votes ended up going to her when their candidate was eliminated at the last election, so a surge in support for the minor party could help … as long as One Nation doesn’t overtake her in the final count, which is a distinct possibility.

Ms Keen would also have to stay ahead of Labor to get into the final two – something she fell just 306 votes short of achieving last time.

The independent has claimed responsibility for prompting many of the major parties’ promises at this election, since it was her showing in 2022 that made Hammond marginal.

“If politics is about community outcomes, we’ve already won,” she said this week.

How Robert Roylance can win

• One Nation can win if: The hype is real
• One Nation is in trouble if: Historical patterns hold true

With all due respect to Mr Roylance, whose campaign launch was attended by about 15 people, it’s his party’s statewide recognition – and the Liberal Party’s difficulties – that might drag the Mannum small business owner into the fight in Hammond.

Two separate polls published in the past week have estimated support for One Nation at an average of 22-23% across South Australia.

That would be higher than the Liberal Party’s forecast 18-19% and three times better than One Nation’s best-ever result in Hammond.

But another poll, published by InDaily today, put One Nation’s support in the regions, specifically, at 39%.

Now that would shake things up.

The sheer number of candidates on the ballot may help, as several – like Family First – may send preferences in Mr Roylance’s direction, bumping him up into the final two.

A source within one of the parties suggested to Murray Bridge News this week that that would indeed be the case.

Even a second-place finish would be a shock, but until all the votes are cast, anything – anything – is possible.

As Mr Roylance told Murray Bridge News earlier this month, “a lot of my volunteers are ex-Liberal voters”.

Follow along on election night

Murray Bridge News will have rolling coverage of the vote count on election night, especially if it looks like we might get a result on Saturday.

What do you think will happen?

I’d love to hear your predictions ahead of election day.

More election coverage

• Ballot royale: Who are the 12 candidates for Hammond?
• Citizens’ agenda: Public transport | Cost of living | Roads | Housing
• Niche issues come to the fore at Hammond election forum
• Where to vote in the Murraylands

Disclosure: The author has never been a member of any political party, and aims to treat all candidates fairly, in keeping with Murray Bridge News’ editorial policy. All four candidates or their parties have advertised with Murray Bridge News during the campaign.